Offline self-hosted TCO calculator

The calculator answers a deliberately boring buyer question: “If I run this myself, what must I pay for, and which numbers are still guesses?” It reads a local JSON worksheet and writes a local report. It has no network client, does not read probectl runtime telemetry, and does not phone home.

Run it

From the repository root:

go run ./ee/cmd/probectl-tco \
  -input docs/pricing/tco-inputs-2026-08-09.json \
  -format markdown

go run ./ee/cmd/probectl-tco \
  -input docs/pricing/tco-inputs-2026-08-09.json \
  -format json

The Markdown snapshot is tco-output-2026-08-09.md. JSON is the canonical output because every line contains:

• the exact formula;
• the input value and unit;
• provenance, date, and source for every known input; and
• value: null plus unknown_inputs when an input is unknown.

The input decoder rejects unknown JSON fields, known values without provenance, and prices without an as-of date. A missing number is never silently changed to zero.

License-fee inputs are unknown on purpose

No price list or pricing model is published (owner decision, 2026-09-20). Revision 2 of the worksheet therefore records every commercial license-fee input as null with provenance unknown, so the Enterprise and MSP totals render as UNKNOWN and only the Core plan, which is free under the core license, produces a complete total. What the calculator does compute for every plan is the part the buyer controls: infrastructure, operator labor, support and migration.

The tenant band controls new provisioning; it never drops telemetry. MSP metering stays local and leaves only through an operator-run export. The MSP resells under the probectl brand; white-label identity replacement is not offered. Rates, discounts, support commitments, reseller language, and commercial license terms still need real design-partner evidence and counsel.

Formula map

The calculator builds the worksheet in this order:

agents = tenants * sites_per_tenant * agents_per_site
tests = agents * tests_per_agent
sampled_raw_ingest = agents * raw_ingest_gb_per_agent_day * sampling_fraction * sampling_multiplier
logical_retained = sampled_raw_ingest * retention_days * retention_multiplier / compression_ratio / 1000
hot_retained = logical_retained * hot_replication * replication_multiplier
backup_retained = logical_retained * backup_replication
query_vcpu = query_rps * query_load_multiplier * cpu_seconds_per_query / target_cpu_utilization
compute = (base_vcpu + query_vcpu) * vcpu_month + ram_gib * ram_gib_month
hot_storage = hot_retained * hot_storage_tb_month
backup_storage = backup_retained * backup_tb_month
operator_labor = (operator_hours_base_month + tenants * operator_minutes_tenant_month / 60) * operator_hour
support_labor = tenants * support_hours_tenant_month * support_hour
migration_amortized = migration_hours * migration_hour / migration_amortization_months
infrastructure = compute + hot_storage + backup_storage
self_hosted_tco_before_license = infrastructure + operator_labor + support_labor + migration_amortized
infrastructure_per_logical_retained_tb = infrastructure / logical_retained
monthly_license = base_annual_usd / 12 + agents * per_peak_agent_monthly_usd
monthly_tco = self_hosted_tco_before_license + monthly_license
effective_tenant_month = monthly_tco / tenants

“Retained TB” means one logical compressed copy. hot_retained separately accounts for replication, preventing a two-copy cluster from pretending it has one-copy storage economics.

Sensitivity and honest unknowns

Each 10-, 100-, and 1,000-tenant scenario is evaluated three ways:

Revision 2 intentionally leaves measured_operator_hours_month unknown. The calculator shows that measured line as null; the planning TCO uses a separately labeled labor hypothesis. Replace it after the MSP design-partner operations study. Likewise, compression and ingest volume are engineering assumptions until the L/XL/XXL runs land. Their provenance says that directly.

Reconciliation map:

Do not use a cheaper number obtained by weakening tenant isolation, TLS, audit, backup, or redaction. Those are product boundaries, not sensitivity knobs.